Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Risky Turkish election predictions

I am not going as a political junkie with my ears to the ground to predict the result of the upcoming election, riding by riding.
More, I will use my own evaluation process which is entirely subjective. I have a very different political background than most of my Turkish friends with whom I agree and disagree on several issues.

Predictions are undoubtedly influenced by specific insights, experiences, or biases about particular contests. However, I strive to come up with predictions that are most sensible as we see them. Let me clarify: I will use general and typical Turkish trends. And I listened to politically minded individuals who pay close attentions to news and issues. I also share polling information and gossips, which may influence my prediction.

Also, I take in consideration 'foreign influences'. Doesn't matter of these are from Islamistic countries, the EU or the Jointed States of America. What most of the people outside Turkey doesn't understand is that there is a 'silent Islamitization on local level' in Turkey going on. At the same time, the closer Turkey comes to adapting the Acquis communautaire, the more their rights are guaranteed.

Anyway, here we go:

I strongly believe that the AK party will gain around 35%-40% of the votes. Mainly from rural areas but also from the new middle class in urban areas. And from people who are saying that they are against the AK party but secretly support them. Also don't underestimate the Turkish people who are living abroad. They often see the big picture, and progress which has been made in Turkey. Next to these factors, people will understand that the first priority of a country in crisis is the macro-economy, the micro-economy will improve as well with more years of AK party in the government. Looking at the high unemployment, especially under young people, they will not vote for an MHP-CHP possible coalition. People want Pavlov: security, freedom, shelter. And it looks like that the AK party did a great job in this, but have still a long way to go. Stability is the magic word of the AK party.

CHP will get 13%-15% of the total of the votes. They have a strong stronghold in several parts of the society, but lacks charisma for new young voters. Their posters and campaign messages are of the last century. Turks are much smarter than what they are promising now for 80 years. I don't think they get a big share of the new young voters. Baykal is simple not the man who attracts new voters.

The GP, the Young Party is the underdog. And Turkish people (like the Dutch) love the underdog...I predict that they will get 11%-14% of the votes, maybe even more. Why? A lot of people will do a protest vote. And since the CHP, DP, and MHP didn't evolve with the time mind, and people don't want to vote for the traditional parties, I think Cem Uzan - with his charm - will do a good job. Especially under new young voters and people who don't know for which party must vote. And charisma can cover a lot. And since he is young and can act as a leader (which Turkish people like) the outcome of this election can be a surprise for the GP...and Turkey.

DP will not pass the threshold. As presented earlier as an good alternative for the current AK party and CHP, lost its attraction when both the DYP and ANAP failed to compromise on their candidate list. I think that for most people its not clear where they stand for and more important, what are they going to do after the elections. I will give them 5%-8% of the votes.

MHP will always appeal to certain people as the savior of Turkey with their warrior mentality. But more on sentiments than logical statements. A 5% hardcore of ultra-nationalist will always support them. But throwing a rope in the public, which the leader of the MHP did, to hang the imprisoned PKK gang leader, is damaging MHP its image. I don't think that the Turkish people like this a-social behaviour anymore. Also, the party leader, Devlet BAHÇELİ, is too old to lead the Turkish nation in a new area. I expect not more than 6%-8% of the Turkish population to vote for them.

Then there are still circa 15% of the voters left. Regarding the Kurdish-Turkish candidates, who will run as independent but in fact for the DTP, I expect that they will take 10% of the seats. And then we have i.g. Baskin Oran, one of the many independent candidates. I expect that they also will gain votes and seats.

In the end, an AK party with the Young Party coalition will be an interesting option.


Emre Kizilkaya said...

I have serious objections and I believe that you have made serious misinterpretations.

First of all, I don't know how you gave those figures. Not even one survey supports them. If you are especially correct about CHP and MHP -we'll see in 10 days- then you should have given a foreteller prize.

You slightly favor AKP, while you really underestimate CHP and MHP.

I believe that you will be also wrong about GP, which would gain less votes. (And your prediction of AKP-GP coalition is totally baseless and has got zero chance. As a bookmaker, my odds are 100-1 for that possibility.)

Even if AKP can succeed to raise its votes, it is sure that it would lose a lot MPs, because a third party (MHP) will be represented as well.

My predictions are not so different than mainstream survey companies (and Hurriyet study, which is more reliable):

AKP: Around 35 percent.
CHP: Around 20 percent.
MHP: Around 15 percent.
GP: 7-8 percent.
DP: 7-8 percent.

"Popular" independent candidates like Baskin Oran or Mesut Yilmaz will be elected, just like around 30 DTP candidates.

* * * * *

Now, let's accept your post as a sign about your knowledge on society, OK?

You say that CHP and MHP will together get 20 percent of votes in average. I tell you that this figure will almost be doubled.

We'll see either if your knowledge on Turkey is fifty-fifty or mine.

Hans A.H.C. de Wit said...

emre, your knowledge of turkey MUST be higher than mine...

regarding predictions: spoke with so many people, all are confused who to vote for.

MHP in the government will turn turkey in an economical and political disaster.
I favor stability, the only party I support is the LDP as you know.))

Emre Kizilkaya said...

I don't think it HAS to be, Hans. You're also living here.

The last survey shows even a more surprising possibility: AKP loses the government, while MHP-CHP coalition has the enough majority to govern.

LDP should learn from Japanese LDP:)

Hans A.H.C. de Wit said...

Emre, we will see..))
Its not about who is right or wrong, these predictions is really personal and subjective, from a PR and Advertisment point of view.

Meral said...

", freedom, shelter. And it looks like that the AK party did a great job in this." Yes, A SECURITY WITH HOARING TERRORISM; A FREEDOM WITH A TENDENTIOUS MEDIA MONOPOLY PROMOTING GOVERNMENT AND SHELTER WITH MILLIONS OF POOR PEOPLE THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS BRIBING WITH FOOD AND COAL BAGS? I just want to make a big hahahhhahhaaa to your "evaluations", you the leery!

Hans A.H.C. de Wit said...

i said, meral, risky predictions. also writing in capitals makes people deaf...

Anonymous said...

I don't think DTP candidates will come anywhere near of 10% votes or MPs (around 55 MPs out of 550). Even the most optimistic forecasts are for around 25 MPs.

Regarding MHP, I believe it will be around 10%. Although they are using the PKK terror as a lifeline, the economic stability is working against them. Such parties are strongest when the economy is shaky.

We need a real left party for the sake of democracy and we need it fast. CHP has never been a real left party (even when Ecevit was the party leader) and now it reverted back to its position during 40s.

Hans A.H.C. de Wit said...

agree on all your comments.
i see Baskin Orhan as the conscience of the left.
the only candidate of all who i really like.