Thursday, July 19, 2007

Election predictions II

My friend Erkan put on his blog an interesting poll.
Still, I am convinced that people will change their minds at the last moment and a lot of protest votes will come out: votes for anti-establishment parties.
And still I think that the CHP will do worse than the opinion polls show.

In the last weeks I spoke with many people who normally would vote for the CHP. Now they are looking at other parties. Some say: GP, some choose to vote for an independent candidate, some admit that - unlike AK party roots from political Islam - they will vote for them. Of the 15 people who used to vote for CHP, only one will vote for them again. And one of the other 14 will vote for MHP.

I am still pondering my head while the 'Turkish Diaspora' (6 million people) are only able to vote when they come over to Turkey as Yasemin stated in her post. Are the Turkish diplomats able to vote abroad?

There was a small poll in the Netherlands among the 500.000 Turkish people living there. Most of them support the AK party and only some would vote for independent candidates of the DTP if they were able to vote in the Netherlands. MHP was the third party. It was strange to see that there is almost no support for the CHP in Hollanda...

6 comments:

Priyank said...

Just some GENERAL thought on voting by diaspora. It will be an operational nightmare for some countries!
I dont know about Turkey, but for India: Diaspora of 20 million, domestic population of 1.1 billion. Thats 1.8%. Imagine the cost! So, only diplomats are allowed to vote.

Hans A.H.C. de Wit said...

The USA have more people living in foreig countries than Turkey, and still they are able to vote, my friend..))

Riza said...

CHP is a party for and by the rich elite. Je bent al 5 jaar in turkije, je rijke matties zijn toch allemaal voor chp :-) vond je dat niet vreemd voor een " linkse" partije? :-)

Hans said...

CHP is a party for and by the rich elite. Je bent al 5 jaar in turkije, je rijke matties zijn toch allemaal voor chp :-) vond je dat niet vreemd voor een " linkse" partije? :-
----------------------------------
Riza, I quess you are a Turkish Dutch? Am I right?
I shall translate your writing here:
'You are already 5 years in Turkey, your rich mates (you write terrible Dutch) are all pro CHP.
Don't you think that this is strange for a left wing party..))
---------------------------------

I can tell you, not one of the Dutch, Dutch Turks, Turkish Dutch I know support the CHP, maybe some AK party but most of them the LDP or independent parties.
Kindest

Riza said...

independent I can understand , but ldp? besim tibuk and his tusiad buddies? you must be hanging in very elitist circles. I thought only billionaires voted for the ldp.
Many of my relatively well off friends vote for chp, thats why I wrote my comment like that.

Hem benim hollandacam kotu degil, senin anlayisin kit

hans said...

In my opinion, allow me to have an opinion, LDP is social liberal and democratic, exactly what Turkey needs.
A stalinist party as the CHP, facing throwing out the socialist internationale as shown as the unarmed forces of the militairy in Turkey, we know how far the Turkish politics reach West Europe,
Call them Gray Wolves, PKK, or a government which send emails out.
Sleep well.